Evan Rodrigues vs Syracuse Crunch 1/6/2017 (Grade 4)

The Amerks were able to secure a fourth win in their last five games at home against the Crunch.  Cal O’Reilly scored the lone goal in a shootout and the Amerks were able to hang on by the skin of their teeth. With Bailey and Fedun missing from the lineup fringe players were able to step up. Kyle Bonis made a very compelling case to play AHL hockey past his 25 game PTO. In this his 24^th tilt he was able find the net, and was a team best 10 of 14 in the face-off circle. Muzito-Bagenda also scored on a nice wrap around attempt.  For the first time since returning from injury Vaclav Karabacek was able to make a difference in the fore-checking game. He made several gritty plays in the corner that led to turnovers. He assisted both Bonis and Bagenda’s goals.

Evan Rodriguez played a very solid game on all fronts. I am going to rate him a 4 tonight, because I now think he will be good enough to play 4^th line minuets in the NHL. In the past Rodrigues has struggled to make an offensive impact; relying only on his fore-checking and instigating abilities to effect the game.  This year he has taken on much more offensive responsibility and is even growing into his role on the power play as a point forward.

Early in the year Rodrigues struggled to hold the point and I was shocked that Lambert continued to show faith in him. Tonight it seemed like the game had finally slowed down for him. All three times he led the breakout the Amerks were able to get clean zone entry. Rodrigues was able to skate the puck all the way into the offensive zone on his first attempt, and find a tape-to-tape pass on the other occasions. The thing that impressed me most about his point play was that it was tailored around creating chances for Baptiste. He was able to draw the defense away form 13 and feed him in the slot twice. The first time Baptiste fanned on the shot. On his second attempt, in costmary fashion Baptiste laced a slap shot into the top corner of the net. 

However, Rodrigues wasn’t just creating chances with a man advantage. He did a good job of leaking out of the zone to start the breakout. With a head start he was able to use his blazing speed to create chances on the rush. After pushing the defense onto their heals he made drop passes to O’Reilly and Schneider to set up open shooting lanes in the slot. He also executed one of his trademark spinning backhands to give Tim Kennedy a shot right in front of the net. He has an element of flair to his game this year that he never had before. Instead of looking confused,  he is playing with confidence. He has certainly come a long way from mindlessly pumping rubber from odd angles.

The addition of a strong offensive game is supplemented by his intense defensive effort. Night in and night out you can count on Rodrigues to pester the opposition. Tonight was not an exception. He feverishly back checked Syracuse forwards all game, and was able to keep defenseman in the zone and win the puck a few times too. He has a very rare ability to get under the skin of enemy players, and you could see frustration begin to manifest for the Crunch. He was at the center of a spirited exchange at the end of both the first and second period.

Rodrigues exhibits a style of play that is tailor made for a NHL 4^th liner. The speed that he is improving at rivals only the lightning speed he pursues the puck with. If he can continue to grow and develop in Rochester, I think he will see more time in Buffalo, and eventually challenge for a permanent spot.

Jean Dupuy vs Lehigh Valley Phantoms 12/30/2016 (Grade A-)

For the first time in four tries the Amerks were finally able to defeat the Phantoms in a 4-3 overtime thriller. After a shaky first five minutes, I was starting to get an all too familiar feeling about how the game was going to go. However, everything changed when Baptiste hit O’Reilly on a bullet of a centering pass leading to the opening goal. He finished the night with two more assists, including one to set up Fedun for the game winner in overtime. Even though Baptiste was the best player tonight, the X-factor was the work of O’Reilly and Kennedy in the face off circle. 

Dupuy also had performed admirably on draws. After losing his first three face offs he was able to turn things around, going 3 for 7 on the night. However, he brought much more to the table then that. His physical play was unmatched by any other player on the ice. Dupuy also registered five shots and an assist, resulting in the most complete game of two-way hockey that I have seen all year. It was not without a few miss steps though. I am going to grade him an A-.

Even though he still has some rust to shake off, Dupuy played a strong offensive game. He got himself in some dangerous situations and was unlucky not to score. He ripped two great shots on the point while covering for Austin to start the night. The first was hard and low creating a rebound and the second he rang off the outside of the post. Later on the power play he snuck into the crease and received a nice pass from O’Reilly.  He tried to lift it into the roof of the net, but instead almost sailed it into the upper deck. He continued to be effective on the power play as the game shifted frames. With the game knotted at two in the second, he was able to get to the net and shield a drive from Baptiste on the point. The goalie wasn’t able to see it, and Schneider banged home the rebound. It didn’t look like he ever made contact with the puck, but a generous home book credited him with an assist. 

Dupuy’s greatest contributions came on the defensive side of the puck. While fore-checking, he set the tone for the rest of the team. Unlike most centers on the roster, he led the charge pressing defenseman and constantly finished his checks. He didn’t have to pound many defenseman into the boards before one took exception. Early in the second after driving Morin into the glass he came after Dupuy and dropped the gloves. It didn’t go very well for him; Dupuy hit him with strong right hook that eventually toppled him to the ice. The frustrated Phantom had to spend a little time getting stitched up before he could return to serve his time. 

Late in the game Dupuy was a defensive anchor. While trying to hang on in regulation he played a major role in keeping the game tied. Filling in for a teammate he drew the difficult task of trying to clear opponents in front of the net. Lambert should pull the tape at the next practice to show his defensive core how it is done. Dupuy stuck tight to his man, lifted his stick, and shepherded him away from the goal. On the final shift of regulation, he harassed a Phantom as he tried to enter the zone and stripped him of the puck. He then cleared it down the ice and locked up a point for the home team. 

I think Dupuy has the potential to play 3^rd or fourth line minuets at the NHL level. As high physical play starts to trickle into the team’s style he becomes a very important piece to a playoff charge. Once he shakes off the rust I think he can provide a nice spark offensively too. In more than one way he reminds me of William Carrier and he has the potential to have a similar impact on this level and the next. 

Casey Nelson vs Lehigh Valley Phantoms 12/28/2016 (Grade B-)

After taking what seemed to be a giant step forward against the Crunch, the Lehigh Valley Phantoms dominated the Amerks on Wednesday night. In the 4-2 contest Rochester was only able to muster 16 shots. Once again the play of Justin Bailey was the highlight of the night. He scored his 5th goal in four games on a well-taken wrister in the slot. Also, Jean Dupuy impressed in his return to the ice. After a long absence he provided a much-needed lift in the faceoff circle. Without Burgdoerfer, Bennett, and the new acquisition Shea, the Amerks defensive core struggled. Like most nights, Geiger was completely outclassed by the opposition. However, his partner Casey Nelson played his best game in weeks.

After what has been a shockingly rough month for Nelson he was much better than I expected. Even so, there is still plenty of room for improvement. I am going to rate him a B-. So far this year Nelson has had serious issues with turnovers and defensive positioning. Tonight he committed very few turnovers, made a few nice interceptions, and played disciplined positional hockey. His willingness to skate the puck through the neutral zone was a refreshing change from previous games. However, he made zero attempts to play physical at all.

Lack of physicality was the greatest detriment to Casey’s performance tonight. Early on Nelson allowed his mark to stand right in front of Ullmark and get a deflection on a shot. Instead of clearing him from the crease, Nelson stood nearby trying to cut down a passing angle. Late in the game he also allowed a winger easy entry into the zone. Even though Nelson had the angle cut down, he refused to play the body; this allowed his man to skate the puck all the way behind the net before he finally engaged. He was not able to win the puck and that led to the third Phantoms goal.

For the most part Nelson was able to poke the puck away from incoming wingers. Geiger’s shortcomings put him in several difficult odd man rush situations, and each time he did well to deny a pass or force tough shots for the opposition. His good instincts also allowed him to make several timely interceptions throughout the game.

Offensively, Nelson showed flashes of the player he needs to be if he wants to make it to the next level. He pinched well on the point, skated the puck more, and took a hard low shot that led to a good rebound chance. He also made a couple of nice stretch passes in open ice to create an odd man rush. He still needs to work on his passing though. On his very first shift he missed two easy passes that led to a turnover and an icing. He also needs to do a better job of making quick safe exit passes to start the breakout.

I think Casey Nelson will definitely play in the NHL some day. However he still has a lot of growing to do. His ability to skate the puck and hold the point in the offensive zone are huge potential assets. But, inconsistencies in passing and man marking mean he will need to spend a lot more time at the AHL level.

Justin Bailey vs Syracuse Crunch 12/26/2016 (Grade A--)

The Amerks came back from holiday break wearing their road blues; it was not the only way they looked like a different team. Coach Dan Lambert did a total reboot of the forward lines.  The new top line featuring Schneider, Kennedy, and Bailey combined for 6 points. Bailey earned the game’s first star for his two goals. Lambert had the magic touch tonight, as the Amerks were able to triumph over the Crunch for the first time in six contests. The night was charged with a physical energy uncommon of anything fans have witnessed at the Blue Cross Arena this year.  Syracuse grew more frustrated as the game progressed, and were not able to execute the way they have in the past. The catalyst of that frustration was Justin Bailey. 

 

Although Bailey was able to net two goals, and earn the first star of the night, the product he put on the ice was far from perfect. I am going to rate him an A--.  On the opening power play of the night, 95 was able to end the Amerks prolonged goal drought. He crashed the net well, and was able to bang home a nice rebound in traffic. The second goal he scored was the result of incredibly lazy back checking. Bailey trailed the play by so much that a stray drop pass found its way to his stick, giving him a breakaway. He was able to deek the Crunch net minder with some quick stick work and score with ease. The play was a perfect representation of the game that he played.

 

Tonight Bailey’s talent overshadowed his lack of effort for the majority of the night. Late in the first period while trying to help dig out a loose puck he took a high stick to the face. It was a clear turning point in Justin’s defensive night. Immediately following the incident he made a decision to put forth minimal (if any) effort in the defensive zone.  On four separate occasions he allowed forwards to test Ullmark from the slot, regardless of his close proximity. Even though he was within a stick length, Bailey didn’t even muster a token poke check. Instead his only motion was to turn his head and watch the shot. Lambert noticed this casual approach to defending and pulled him from the first penalty killing line in the third period.

 

Even though at times he looked appalling defensively, his offensive talent was the main headline of the night. His ability to quickly skate the puck length of the ice is becoming a staple of his play.  On multiple occasions he was able to burn past defenders into the zone and create dangerous chances. Twice Syracuse defenders resorted to taking penalties instead of trying to keep pace with him. Off the puck he moved very well, and generated a few good shots from the slot (the first resulting in a goal). More importantly, he was able to convert on his chances.  

 

For the first fifteen minutes of the game Bailey played the type of hockey that could take him to the NHL. He used his speed to chase the puck down in the offensive zone, created chances with his ability to skate the puck, and drove the net hard. During that time he was by far the best player on the ice.  He was also able to raise the level of his game after his second tally with ten minuets left in the game (being on hat trick watch is usually a strong motivator). He is far and away a different player when he is putting forth max effort. If Bailey is ever going to capitalize on his NHL potential he needs to maintain a high work rate at all times. 

Tim Kennedy vs Binghamton Senators 12/19/2016 (Grade J)

Tonight’s 4-1 collapse was one of the worst games Rochester played all year. After leading 1-0, the Senators scored four unanswered goals, snapping the Amerk’s three game home win streak. If O’Reilly had not been gifted an assist on what was a largely an individual effort, Baptiste-O’Reilly-Schneider would have gone their 3^rd strait game without a point. The #1 line is a combined -11 over that stretch. Once again that lack of production filtered into special teams play. Rochester has now failed to score on 23 strait power plays. The lone bright spot of the night was the hard work of Justin Bailey, who scored the only goal.  After a shaky start to the year, he is really starting to heat up. 

 

Among the things to be disappointed about was the return of Tim Kennedy. Tonight his rating was a J, for jet-lagged. After traveling over 30 hours this weekend, and moving his family from Sweden on Thursday, it looked obvious he wasn’t prepared to play. His slow reactions were most evident in the face-off circle. He lost almost every draw he had tonight (most of them cleanly). 

 

Offensively, Kennedy was never really able to get into the game. He very rarely found himself on the puck, and most passes to and from 95 and 19 were just out of reach. He was one of only four Amerks not to register a shot on goal. On the breakout he looked confused at times, like he didn’t know where to be. The one exceptional aspect of Kennedy’s performance was his fore-checking. He worked extremely hard to pursue the puck in the offensive zone. He was able to generate a few turnovers; and he always finished his checks. This was the first game I have seen all year that an Amerk has finished his checks consistently from the opening whistle to the final horn. Obviously he doesn’t know the type of hockey that is expected of a Rochester forward.

In the defensive zone he was wildly inconsistent. He showed flashes of a heady, two-way, veteran hockey player. He was very good in support of teammates on the boards. He was able to pick the puck out from skates on numerous occasions and start the breakout safely. He also made a smart move choosing not to play a puck that Geiger knocked down with his hand; avoiding a whistle. However, he got caught puck watching out of position way to often. As a result, he wasn’t able to get out quick enough to block shots from the point. He made a crucial error leading to the first Senators goal. During a delayed penalty, he had an opportunity to win the puck along the boards. After failing to do so, he did not pressure the pass well enough, allowing Rumble to slowly glide down the slot and pick out his shot.  

 

After spending the holiday break re-acclimating himself to the Rochester area, I’m sure Kennedy will play much better. The Amerks will need him to help mentor the very young roster. If he is going to make an on-ice impact, Kennedy will have to improve on what he showed in the faceoff circle dramatically. Unfortunately he can’t help Buffalo at the next level because his NHL rights belong to the Hurricanes. 

Cal O'Reilly vs St. Jons Ice Caps 12/18/2016 (Grade C-)

The Amerk’s were able to squeak out a close one in overtime tonight with a 3-2 win. Justin Bailey blazed into the zone, beat his man on the wing, and deeked the keeper to get the overtime winner. For his goal he earned the first star of the night.

In my opinion, the real star of the show was Taylor Fedun.  His ability to skate the puck effectively makes him the offensive catalyst the Amerks need on the point.  He made beautiful stretch passes to start the breakout; including one gorgeous pass from behind his net, through the neutral zone, onto the stick of his right winger. With him on the point, power play zone entry was flawless.  In Fedun’s absence this has been a glaring weakness.  When he did not skate the puck past centre ice, he was able to draw find an easy entry pass. He assisted on the first Amerks goal, and scored the go-ahead goal on a nice top-shelf wrister.  I also think Erik Burgdoerfer played a great game. He made several heads up plays in the defensive zone, and is evolving into a key blue liner.

Unfortunately, I was less than impressed with what I saw from the captain. I am going to give Cal O’Reilly a C- against the Ice Caps. I set a very high bar for Cal. He went into the game as the Amerks leading point scorer with a team high 20 assists. On a line centering Nick Baptiste and Cole Schneider, high production is a must. However, tonight the Amerks top line was not able to muster a single point. 

Offensively Cal did numerous things right. He was very calm under pressure and executed several nice passes in tight windows.  He made a few solid back passes early in the first to set up good shots from the point. O’Reilly had a nice give and go with Baptiste that led to a nice low shot from 13. However, it was a slew of miscues made by Cal that ultimately defined the captains frustrating night. Twice early on he was dispossessed trying to stick handle through defenders.   

He was the beneficiary of a great pass in the slot that left him 1 on 1 with the goalie.  Instead of coolly pick out the open far post with a well-placed wrist shot, (Maybe I have been spoiled by Baptiste) he fired a clumsy slap shot right into the belly of the waiting Ice Cap goalie. He had  similar opportunity later in the game on the left wing with a defender trailing him. He elected not to shoot at all; opting instead to fling a spinning no look pass across the slot. Unfortunately, the only Ice Cap defenders were in the area. It was not the only time he showed an aversion to shooting the puck. On the power play Cal passed up several chances to take shots. He needs to be more aggressive and establish himself as a threat to shoot. 

Defensively I don’t think O’Reilly put forth enough effort to play an effective two way game.  Cal receives a lot of ice time on a nightly basis. It seemed obvious from his first two shifts that he was conserving energy on the defensive end. He let Baptiste and Schneider do the lion’s share of the fore-checking work. In the defensive zone I thought he was slow to loose pucks all night, and didn’t get his body in front of enough shots. 

Because he was conserving so much energy in the defensive zone I expected O’Reilly to turn his night around and make a play when the game was in the balance. Unfortunately, in the closing moments he seemed frustrated and was wasn’t able make anything happen. The only way O’Reilly grew into the game tonight was in the face off circle. After a mediocre start he won almost all of his draws in the third period. 

Overall Cal O’Reilly is a fantastic AHL player. However in my opinion he will never be able to consistently play effective hockey at the NHL level. Because he isn’t a two way player Cal does not play a style of hockey that makes him a fit as a 3^rd or 4^th line player. And without a dynamic shot he does not fit the mold of a top 6 forward either. O’Reilly is the ideal AHL captain. He makes the players around him better and there is no indication he will be called up anytime soon.

Vaclav Karabacek vs Toronto Marlies 12/14/2016 (Grade A-)

Tonight’s 5-2 victory against the Marlies might just be the best of the year.  In a contest that was bogged down by some questionable officiating, Nick Baptiste played a near perfect game; and was able to record a hat trick.  Also Dan Catenacci was able to bust out of his slump, scoring a goal, and earning the second star. Power play woes continued as the Amerks went 0 for 4 on the night. Lambert attempted to put Nelson on the point. Instead of rising to the task Nelson continually turned the puck over impeding zone entry on a consistent basis. He even gifted the puck away on the point leading to a breakaway for the Marlies.

I am going to give Vaclav Karabacek an A- in his Amerks debut. In my first ever viewing of him I was very impressed. He played mistake free hockey for most of the night. I loved his fore-checking effort, and he combined with Catenacci for a nice assist. He was a +1 on the night and was able to register 2 shots on net. He was not involved in any special teams during the night, but I think he is starting to develop some nice chemistry with 95 and 43

Offensively it only took Karabacek a few shifts to start to click with his line-mates. He made a couple of nice cross-ice passes to Justin Bailey, creating good shot opportunities. He drove the net well, but Bailey was not able to generate any rebounds for him. He made a nice play on his assist; drawing a defender to him and sliding a nice no look drop pass to Catenacci (who finished it off in impressive fashion). 

The rest of Karabacek s offense was generated by his intense fore-checking efforts. On four separate occasions he was able to turn the puck over in the offensive zone, recover it, and create a chance. He was able to find Bailey wide open in front of the net early in the first period. Unfortunately even with time and space Bailey did not finish. Late in the second he was able to nudge a defender off the puck earning himself a nice shot in the slot. Sadly he put it right in the stomach of the waiting Marlie goaltender. Karabacek was rewarded for his efforts with a couple extra shifts late in the when the Amerks were trying to close out the game. It’s because of his hard work that the story of the last few minuets was focused on Nick Baptiste’s hat trick watch, rather than a Toronto comeback effort.

In the Defensive zone I thought Karabacek got locked in on the puck a bit too much. He was aggressive trying to make interceptions (sometimes to a fault) leading to a couple steals. However he gambled a bit too much and allowed a few open shots from the point. Also Karabacek gave his defender too much space on several occasions and wasn’t in position to block a shot.  Fortunately not one of those shots found the net.

Overall Karabacek s night was characterized by solid steady play. He did not look like an elite player on the puck, but I thought he played very well. Going forward I would like to see him stick handle and take more shots. I think if he continues to develop chemistry with Bailey and Catenacci they can make up a very strong 2^nd line.